04/12/2014 WEEKLY FORECAST FROM 14 TO 17 APRIL
Hi, Last week the US markets had an overreaction from my point of view.
Let´s review the last macroeconomical data from Friday:
- Producer Price Index: 0.5% better than expected (0.1%).
- Michigan consumer sentiment index: 82.6 better than expected (81).
- Producer Pirce index (YoY): 1.4%, better than expected (1.1%).
Even the Jobs data were better than expected. What happened last week?.
Actually the Nasdaq index is at 4.000 points. Let´s see the technicals:
Supports and Resistances:
S1: 3.970 S2: 3.809 R1: 4.155.21 R2: 4.301.87
The RSI is at 34%.
The stochastic is oversold and the MACD is below zero and below the signal.
Those facts make me think that the nasdaq is oversold (could be normal, a lot of people think that some biotech and technology stocks like NFLX, LNKD, TWTR were reheated, But How about the DOW and the NYSE index? . It´s probably the rumors of correction made the inverstors leave scared from NASDAQ stocks and then investors from NYSE and DOW were also frightened, Remember that the down movement began with the nasdaq.
Anyway, with a better macroeconomical from this week and the new good data (I hope) for the next week.It´s porbably a good bounce for the next week.
From my point of view it´s probably that the nasdaq will go up above the 4.229 points in the next two weeks, however I will revise the analysis the next week. Now it´s very close to the 38.2 Fibonacci Retracement and technicaly it will bounce.
There´s a double ground too very close to the resistance. So it´s probably the index will bounce.
I leave you the Chart.
As you can see in the graph the uptrend is broken, however there´s a support close that will create a double ground.
I want to make a securities forecast selection for this week, however it´s a lot of work (analyse 10 stocks) so It´s problably this week I select only 5 or 6 stocks.
I will publish the securities selection as soon as I finish.
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Enjoy the weekend!